Bitcoin : If 100% of the current BTC/BCH hashrate went to BCH, it would take 132 days for it to catch the frozen BTC chain
The numbers here come from fork.lol, starting with this quote from the [total work] (https://fork.lol/pow/work) tab:
>Just for fun, the approximate total number of SHA256 hashes needed to produce the work: 979043853131043533089669120.
I’m going to assume that’s accurate.
As of the time I took the info, fork.lol indicated the total work for the two chains is as follows:
>BTC total work: 227958.43 (trillions)
>BCH total work: 54545.89 (trillions)
If you add up the total work of the two chains, then BTC’s total work reflects 80.69% of the total, and conversely the BCH total work is 19.31%.
Multiplying the fork.lol total estimated number of SHA256 hashes to obtain the total work by those percentages means that it took an estimated 7.9 x 10^26 hashes to get the total BTC work, and 1.89 x 10^26 hashes to get the total BCH work.
Assuming a total BTC chain freeze, it would take an estimated 6.01 x 10^26 SHA256 hashes for the BCH total work to equal the current BTC total work.
The fork.lol [hashrate tab] (https://fork.lol/pow/hashrate) indicates that the BTC average estimated hashrate (7 day) is approximately 5.249 x 10^19 hashes/second, while the BCH estimated hashrate (7 day) is 3.86 x 10^18 hashes/second. Summing these results in a total network hashrate of 5.635 x 10^19 hashes/second
Multiplying the network hashrate per second by 60 seconds and then multiplying by 60 minutes and then multiplying by 24 hours yields an estimated total network hashrate of 4.53 x 10^24 hashes/day.
If we simply divide the total SHA256 hashes needed to replicate the difference between the BTC total work and the BCH total work, it would take 132 days for BCH to catch a frozen BTC chain.
Thats a pretty simplistic number, and hashrate seems to constantly increase.
If we assume total network hashrate increases 13 fold in a 1 year period, that’s the equivalent of daily compounded increases of 0.71% (today 100%, tomorrow 100.71%, the next day 101.43%, etc.). At that rate of increase, BCH would take 94 days to catch a frozen BTC chain.
I would love for everyone to check my work, but assuming I’m not totally off base, is the BCH flippening moving further and further into the realm of impossibility with each passing day?
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